You might as well spare yourself the surprise; this trading session is likely to be as quiet as the previous one. If you are aware of the decision announced by Donald Trump last night to pull the United States out of the Iranian nuclear program agreement, perhaps you expected a strong reaction from the stock markets this morning. Apparently, this will not be the case.
The US President’s announcement is violent, and worrying in several aspects (uncertainties about the future of links between Iran and its trading partners, disruptions on the oil market, rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East) but it was largely anticipated by investors.
If there is a reaction to be observed, it is on the oil market. The Brent has gained about 1 dollar since yesterday (from 75.5 dollars in the last two days to over 76.5 this morning). The market fears an erosion of supply in the run-up to the restoration of US sanctions against Iran, Opep’s third largest producer. It goes without saying that oil stocks should benefit. The weekly stocks of American oil, expected at the end of the session, may invalidate or confirm this movement.
The United States has also declared that it will withdraw Airbus and Boeing authorizations to sell airliners to Iran, which could weigh on the aircraft manufacturer on the Paris stock exchange this morning. Boeing gave up 0.6% yesterday. Armaments-related companies, such as Thales and Dassault Aviation, could instead follow Lockheed Martin (+2% in New York) and benefit from expectations of rising tensions in the Middle East.
EDF, whose quarterly figures were made public this morning, and Eurofins, which announced a small acquisition in Germany, will also have to be monitored. Future contracts provide an opening to balance for CAC 40.